Electoral Projection 10/29 – 0352 M186

I simply don’t have any more evidence to withhold Ohio and Florida from Obama anymore. In Ohio, Obama is up 6 in the pollster.com average and the last poll that showed a McCain lead was a Republican poll on 10/23. The last one before that was a Zogby Internet poll, which are junk.

You have to go back to 10/19 to get a non-partisan pollster to show a McCain lead there. That poll, the Fox/Rasmussen now shows Obama up by 4, outside its margin of error.

Fox/Rasmussen similary shows a pro-Obama swing of 5 points in Florida. In both states, Obama is hugely outspending both McCain and the RNC. Also, as noted below, it appears that Charlie Crist has decided to make Florida shenanigans free this time around.

The polls for North Carolina and Georgia seem to be underpolling black turnout based on the results in early voting, but I’m not willing to make that leap of faith yet, especially in Georgia. I think Obama will overperform the polls in Indiana for similar reasons, but also because (1) no one is an Indiana polling expert, (2) the polls got both the Dem primary and ’06 Congressional races slightly wrong. I think this is Obama’s ground game giving him a boost. I’d say the same thing about Missouri, but I’m not ready to go there. Yet.

I know there’s potential action in NE-2, Montana, Arizona, and even South Dakota and Mississippi. I don’t think it will play at the end of the day.

There’s just no way on earth McCain can lose Virginia, Florida, and Ohio and still win. That would more than make up for his Pennsylvania gambit, which isn’t going to work out anyway. We will probably know the results pretty soon after the polls close in Florida, which is central time, unless we’ve already heard from North Carolina or Georgia.

If something doesn’t go right, we’ll know it early. Then we’ll need to pay VERY close attention to Colorado and Nevada. Obama wins even without all the bonus states and Pennsylvania with those two. For that to happen, something must be going wrong. Either way, I think we’ll know early this time.

I’ll predict 56-1-1-42 in the Senate. Snowe, Collins, and Spectre (and, sigh, Liebermann) will need to be bought to get things clotured. 60 without Libermann would have been nice, but because the RNC got back in this fight in time, that’s probably not going to happen. But look at the 2010 map…possibilities abound.

House: 245-197. Not as huge as some people thought—mostly because the RNC realized they had to focus on this because of McCain’s failing.

Instead of weekly, I’ll be updating again on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Crist Sticks In The Shiv.

Early voting hours expanded in Florida.

What’s the catch, they ask? Why would the Republican governor of Florida do this when early voters so far are for Obama 60-40? This is the state of the 2000 election and hanging chads and Katherine Harris. This can’t possibly be good for Democrats, right?

Wrong. It’s possible he thinks this will somehow improve Republican turnout. But in reality, the point is to strengthen his approval with independents and Democrats in Florida by looking non-partisan and using it as a base to launch his 2012 presidential campaign.

It’s also a giant “FUCK YOU” to John McCain for not picking Crist, who like Tom Ridge and even Joe Liebermann, have started making public statements that seem to show that they understand reality and thought the Sarah Palin pick was a disaster.

Let’s just think about the map with Florida solid red. Does Obama still win? Probably, but Florida is an expensive state to defend, and with McCain’s limited funds, he could have used that money to do a better job in Colorado, Ohio, AND Indiana. Let’s say he picked Ridge and made Pennsylvania at least competitive. Same deal with the cash. What about the electoral votes? It would have forced Obama to control Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada (or Florida). Liebermann also probably would have sealed up Florida (but probably not Connecticut, given his current standing there). 

Am I reading too much into this? Maybe, possibly. But it’s starting to look to me like Crist is going to try the “fresh face” popular governor moderate approach and be the Bill Clinton of 2012, against the Paul Tsongas (i.e. old line liberal) of 2012, Sarah Palin.

That means Democrats need to start fucking this guy up on Nov. 5.

Walking & Chewing Gum

I’m going to Nevada to help keep votes being stolen from Barack. I’ve given money in the worst financial year of my life. I’ve gone to fund raisers, talked to people, taken time off of work. I’ve done all of that stuff.

Yet the blogosophere is demanding so much of us. We need to get 30 more House seats and get to 60 in the Senate. Californians need to stop Prop 8.

Look, we can walk and chew gum at the same time, but we need to let people do what they want to do. Me, I mostly want to get Barack elected and worry about icing on the cake later. If other people find Prop H8te to be their number one thing, then so be it. Let them do it.

But I’m tired of being guilted because I’m not on board for cause #356

McCain Starting To Blame Palin?

If I were to believe some of the “serious people’s” ideas about John McCain, it would be that he really is the John McCain of 2000, and he’s being forced into this kind of Bushian campaign by Bush people. I’m not sure how that makes someone who’s supposed to be the President look good, since they should be responsible, but anyway, let’s grant that for the sake of the argument.

If the 2000 McCain is the real McCoy (not just one that was forced to pull showboat tricks because he was poorly funded compared to Bush, just as he has this year) then the media is now leaking that boo fucking hoo, he wanted to pick Lieberman or Ridge instead of Palin, and that it sounds like he now may be blaming her for his campaigns failure.

Well, all I can say is, if there was no one in the room—McCain included—that didn’t snap everyone out of it with the Palin pick, then those people can’t be in the White House. Anyone could see how dangerously stupid it was.

And after they promoted her so much, during her moments of glory, it became obvious that she was more about Palin 2012 than McCain 2008.

I hear so many people say “that has nothing to do with it—it’s the economy.” Bullshit. It’s both. People may think Obama will be better on the economy, but they have fundamentally lost faith in McCains ability to do anything, war, economy, anything, almost entirely because of the Palin pick.