Electoral Projection 10/29 – 0352 M186

I simply don’t have any more evidence to withhold Ohio and Florida from Obama anymore. In Ohio, Obama is up 6 in the pollster.com average and the last poll that showed a McCain lead was a Republican poll on 10/23. The last one before that was a Zogby Internet poll, which are junk.

You have to go back to 10/19 to get a non-partisan pollster to show a McCain lead there. That poll, the Fox/Rasmussen now shows Obama up by 4, outside its margin of error.

Fox/Rasmussen similary shows a pro-Obama swing of 5 points in Florida. In both states, Obama is hugely outspending both McCain and the RNC. Also, as noted below, it appears that Charlie Crist has decided to make Florida shenanigans free this time around.

The polls for North Carolina and Georgia seem to be underpolling black turnout based on the results in early voting, but I’m not willing to make that leap of faith yet, especially in Georgia. I think Obama will overperform the polls in Indiana for similar reasons, but also because (1) no one is an Indiana polling expert, (2) the polls got both the Dem primary and ’06 Congressional races slightly wrong. I think this is Obama’s ground game giving him a boost. I’d say the same thing about Missouri, but I’m not ready to go there. Yet.

I know there’s potential action in NE-2, Montana, Arizona, and even South Dakota and Mississippi. I don’t think it will play at the end of the day.

There’s just no way on earth McCain can lose Virginia, Florida, and Ohio and still win. That would more than make up for his Pennsylvania gambit, which isn’t going to work out anyway. We will probably know the results pretty soon after the polls close in Florida, which is central time, unless we’ve already heard from North Carolina or Georgia.

If something doesn’t go right, we’ll know it early. Then we’ll need to pay VERY close attention to Colorado and Nevada. Obama wins even without all the bonus states and Pennsylvania with those two. For that to happen, something must be going wrong. Either way, I think we’ll know early this time.

I’ll predict 56-1-1-42 in the Senate. Snowe, Collins, and Spectre (and, sigh, Liebermann) will need to be bought to get things clotured. 60 without Libermann would have been nice, but because the RNC got back in this fight in time, that’s probably not going to happen. But look at the 2010 map…possibilities abound.

House: 245-197. Not as huge as some people thought—mostly because the RNC realized they had to focus on this because of McCain’s failing.

Instead of weekly, I’ll be updating again on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Crist Sticks In The Shiv.

Early voting hours expanded in Florida.

What’s the catch, they ask? Why would the Republican governor of Florida do this when early voters so far are for Obama 60-40? This is the state of the 2000 election and hanging chads and Katherine Harris. This can’t possibly be good for Democrats, right?

Wrong. It’s possible he thinks this will somehow improve Republican turnout. But in reality, the point is to strengthen his approval with independents and Democrats in Florida by looking non-partisan and using it as a base to launch his 2012 presidential campaign.

It’s also a giant “FUCK YOU” to John McCain for not picking Crist, who like Tom Ridge and even Joe Liebermann, have started making public statements that seem to show that they understand reality and thought the Sarah Palin pick was a disaster.

Let’s just think about the map with Florida solid red. Does Obama still win? Probably, but Florida is an expensive state to defend, and with McCain’s limited funds, he could have used that money to do a better job in Colorado, Ohio, AND Indiana. Let’s say he picked Ridge and made Pennsylvania at least competitive. Same deal with the cash. What about the electoral votes? It would have forced Obama to control Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada (or Florida). Liebermann also probably would have sealed up Florida (but probably not Connecticut, given his current standing there). 

Am I reading too much into this? Maybe, possibly. But it’s starting to look to me like Crist is going to try the “fresh face” popular governor moderate approach and be the Bill Clinton of 2012, against the Paul Tsongas (i.e. old line liberal) of 2012, Sarah Palin.

That means Democrats need to start fucking this guy up on Nov. 5.

Walking & Chewing Gum

I’m going to Nevada to help keep votes being stolen from Barack. I’ve given money in the worst financial year of my life. I’ve gone to fund raisers, talked to people, taken time off of work. I’ve done all of that stuff.

Yet the blogosophere is demanding so much of us. We need to get 30 more House seats and get to 60 in the Senate. Californians need to stop Prop 8.

Look, we can walk and chew gum at the same time, but we need to let people do what they want to do. Me, I mostly want to get Barack elected and worry about icing on the cake later. If other people find Prop H8te to be their number one thing, then so be it. Let them do it.

But I’m tired of being guilted because I’m not on board for cause #356

McCain Starting To Blame Palin?

If I were to believe some of the “serious people’s” ideas about John McCain, it would be that he really is the John McCain of 2000, and he’s being forced into this kind of Bushian campaign by Bush people. I’m not sure how that makes someone who’s supposed to be the President look good, since they should be responsible, but anyway, let’s grant that for the sake of the argument.

If the 2000 McCain is the real McCoy (not just one that was forced to pull showboat tricks because he was poorly funded compared to Bush, just as he has this year) then the media is now leaking that boo fucking hoo, he wanted to pick Lieberman or Ridge instead of Palin, and that it sounds like he now may be blaming her for his campaigns failure.

Well, all I can say is, if there was no one in the room—McCain included—that didn’t snap everyone out of it with the Palin pick, then those people can’t be in the White House. Anyone could see how dangerously stupid it was.

And after they promoted her so much, during her moments of glory, it became obvious that she was more about Palin 2012 than McCain 2008.

I hear so many people say “that has nothing to do with it—it’s the economy.” Bullshit. It’s both. People may think Obama will be better on the economy, but they have fundamentally lost faith in McCains ability to do anything, war, economy, anything, almost entirely because of the Palin pick.

The last of the Palin drama

  • More embezzlement against the state of Alaska for kids’ trips
  • Says Bristol is a good example for young girls/women
  • $150,000 on clothes for the “hockey mom” family spent by RNC
  • She was apparently foisted on McCain by a bunch of middle-aged conservative magazine guys on a Republican booze-cruise who got hot for her.

Electoral Projection 10/22

This map is again a very conservative picture of the polls at the state level. McCain’s mini bounce over the last week appears over, so concrete is probably setting in and that reflects more noise than signal.

I still believe that Indiana isn’t being polled right by anyone besides Selzer, and even discounting that Obama is showing a lead there. I moved it over last week on “faith.” I’m doing the same with North Dakota. It’s just not a state full of extremists, and I think people are having trouble measuring it like Indiana, since no one has really bothered. My wife has relatives and I just have a “feeling” about it.

The rest are my conservative estimations. Notice that eliminating my “faith based” picks, Obama still wins.

More on Palin and Jews For Jesus

From The New Yorker:

[The man who started the draft Palin movement’s] family, once evangelical Christians, now practice what he calls “Messianic Judaism.” They believe that Jesus is the Messiah, but they also observe the Jewish holidays and attend synagogue; as Brickley puts it, “Jesus was Jewish, so to be like Him you need to be Jewish, too.” Brickley said that “the hand of God” played a role in choosing Palin: “The longer I worked on it the less I felt I was driving it. Something else was at work.”

FYI—There is no such thing as Messianic “Judaism.” There is no such thing as a “Jews” for Jesus “synagogue.” These people are not Jewish, have not converted according to Jewish law, and deny the one thing you can’t deny and believe in Judaism:

Hear, O Israel, יהוה is our God—יהוה is one (i.e., not three)

2008: The Birth of the Violent Reaction Party

Every day more Obama voters and supporters get death threats, there are racist hate mongerings in publications, and even harassment at polling places (e.g. Fayetteville, N.C.).

The McCain/Palin campaign isn’t doing anything to stop it. I don’t understand that. If they don’t understand this isn’t a base election (they wouldn’t have picked Palin, I guess) by now, then they are doomed to lose anyway. But you know, McCain would probably improve a ton if he started kicking around some of these people and telling them to respect the process, and make a big deal out of it.

Instead we’re left with the marian image of Sarah Palin leading the white reaction. I would suspect they will attempt to primary or split off against any Republicans who deal with “terrorists.”

Colin Powell

Could have been president in 1996, but didn’t want to deal with the slime that would be flung at him. And he hurt himself by association with Bush, but (and not just by endorsing Obama) by this, he surely rehabilitated himself.

There’s nothing wrong with being Muslim.

It took Colin Powell to say it.


“People say, ‘Oh, she’s a creationist,’” said Judy Davidson, a resident of Downingtown, Pa. who describes herself as being in between the Conservative and Orthodox movements. “What she believes is what every Orthodox Jew believes. We love her.”

From the Forward.


Do Orthodox Jews believe any of the following? I don’t remember seeing these among Maimonides’s 13 principles, to say the least:

  • Jesus Christ was the Messiah foretold by the Jewish prophets
  • Jesus’s return (as the Messiah) to the Earth is imminent
  • That part of his return will be signaled by the conversion of Jews to Christianity
I think there is one sect of “Jews” that believes that: “Jews” for Jesus. AFAIK, not supported by the Orthodox Union.

Palin: We Told You

According to some Republican insider:

HORTON: We’ve got a lot of finger-pointing going on within the camp, and I’d say there’s a pretty broad agreement amongst a number of the senior-most advisors to McCain that the Palin pick is worse than disappointing. It’s a total disaster, as one describes to me. And there is a sort of blame game going on there. […]

I would say the anger and irritation between a number of the senior people in the McCain camp and Bill Kristol is become really acute. … They view this man as the guy who gave them this albatross, Sarah Palin. I think there’s a lot of real anger about it. There’s also recognition that it’s too late to do anything.

That this wasn’t facially obvious to “senior-most advisors” and to McCain himself tells you all you need to know. And by the way we told you again and again and again and again this was a massive fail from the beginning.

One last thing…

Are you tired of reading “Obama should do this?”

Fine. I’ll make this a warning instead. There is still one thing left that could change the election: bin Laden. A simple way to do this would be to make a “major foreign policy” speech on bin Laden and run a bunch of ads promising to go get him.

Then if he does anything, Obama can just say “he’s responding to my promise to take him out.”

That is all.

Here's my 10/15 Prediction

I think Obama’s ground game is going to surprise people in Indiana. If it was two weeks from now, I would put Florida and North Carolina in the blue column. I believe Ohio is too mired in voter suppression shenanigans.

This is intentionally a very conservative picture. It’s 302 EVs.

My Ayers Retort

Senator McCain in one of his numerous attacks—all of his advertising is 100% attack ads now—and his crowds enjoy pointing out that my middle name, like millions of people throughout the world is Hussein. I think they’re trying to say that I’m connected to Saddam Hussein.

Well, Senator McCain, you’re middle name may not be Hussein, but the person you hired to run your transition team, the person responsible for putting your government into place, your administration—was a lobbyist—that should be no surprise—your campaign is of the lobbyists, for the lobbyists, and by the lobbyists—but he was a lobbyist for.


Not back in the 1980s when you and the rest of Congress was giving military support to Saddam Hussein and selling him weapons. No. After the first President Bush assembled an international coalition to eject Saddam from its illegal occupation of Kuwait. After that. After he was defeated. Your lobbyist tried to beg for favors from our government from Saddam.

Hussein may be my middle name, Senator McCain, but at least he’s not a friend of a friend of mine.

What if he peaks today part II

Assume again Obama has peaked again today. Let’s decrease his lead at the same pace it increased over the next 18 days (when only a trivial amount of undecideds will remain).

The pollster.com average 18 days back was O49-M43, with the EVs at about O 300 according to election.princeton.edu, with a 273-350 95% confidence interval.

This does not account for early voting. I don’t have numbers on just how many people are voting early, how they are voting, or in what states they are voting. It also assumes that a reversal in the national polls would correspond to the exact same results in state polls. That may not be. Florida, for example, is looking a lot more locked in than some other Bush states.

Therefore, I think it’s safe to conclude that a simple “momentum change” will not bring about a McCain win. It would require a “game changer.” Let’s build in a 3 point bump, assuming a McCain blowout at the third debate.

Result: (47-44) That most recently occurred mid-September, and it was O 273, with a 95% confidence interval of about 240-300. That’s a nail-biter.

The problem is this: any McCain surge in time to make a difference leaves time for a counter-surge.

Obama and Krugman

I’ve still never really forgiven Obama for attacking Krugman, and it’s one of those things that has probably prevented me from loving Obama the man instead of Obama the Democrat who is about to kick the Republicans’ asses nationwide.

Remember: it wasn’t enough for Obama to disagree with Krugman—they actually oppo researched him and leveled ad hominem attacks. And I think in large part it’s why Krugman’s Conscience of a Liberal wasn’t as triumphant as it could have been.

The brilliance of Obama’s campaign wasn’t apparent then. He appeared to be pivoting right in order to carve out space between him and Hillary. It became apparent to me that his campaign was competent when in doing so, he actually won over liberal support. All Krugman did was have the chutzpah to point out that Hillary’s health care plan actually covered everyone and Obama’s didn’t.

Well, now Krugman has won the Nobel Prize, and Obama will likely be president. I just hope that Obama listens to Krugman about health care, to Nobel Prize winner Al Gore about the environment, and his own campaign on how to deal with the Republicans.

Conservatron Hate Machine Fail!

In April 2006, months before the Democratic Congressional sweep, I wrote this:

“The Party of Lincoln is descending into the Refuge of the Lasts. That is, the last people who disregard evolution, the last people who ignore global warming, the last people who still believe that Hussein and bin Laden were conspirators and that Iraq had WMDs, and, sooner than you think, the last xenophobes and the last homophobes, and maybe maybe one day the last coded racists and anti-Semites.”

We are in the End of Days for the last coded racists, xenophobes and the rest. The Conservatron Hate Machine huffed and puffed with all of its polite racism and McCarthyistic guilt-by-association fury this week, and at the end of it all Bush Patsy McCain was booed down by his own mob for admitting that Obama is not a monster. Better that than being remembered as the man who incited the assassination of America’s first black President, I suppose. In one wasted week his campaign managed to both horrify moderate undecideds and infuriate their base jackals by not inciting a riot. As the dust settles, Obama remains in the same catbird seat that he was in last Sunday while Nilap got one of the toughest booings ever in Philadelphia.

What is hilarious about the Obama=Demon tactic is that, like so many Conservatron attacks, it sets the bar incredibly low for Obama. In debates all Obama has to do to win over some of these freaked out undecideds is not be a fire breathing terrorist. This is something that he, along with 99.99999999% of the population, has managed to do every moment since birth with no effort whatsoever. Once it becomes evident Obama isn’t pure evil he can state his message without an effective counter-attack to his ideas because the Conservatrons have spent their energies smearing Obama rather than disagreeing with him. As George Packer reports in an article about the working class white vote in Ohio, Obama’s proposals may finally be sinking in:

“Recently, people in Ohio have told me that voters there have started to shift toward Obama. Gabe Kramer, of the S.E.I.U., said that, after the first Presidential debate and amid the financial crisis, union members seemed to find Obama’s ideas and manner more persuasive than before.”

It is self-evident that any intellectual argument for the last 8 years, and even the last 40 years, is empty right now. An Obama victory will do half the job of returning Conservatronism to fringe status. The second half can only be accomplished by successful governance. That is the test. If it fails then we may have not witnessed regrettable and hateful but forgettable Johnah McPalin rallies this week; rather, we may have been present at the birthing of a modern American fascist movement. Conservatronism will be dead, but 40 years of its well-pruned scapegoating and hatred will have overgrown the planter to live on.

For now, a version of what I hoped for in April 2006 appears to be coming to pass:

“The vastly overrated Bush patsy John McCain has reasoned that he must floss his teeth with Jerry Falwell’s ass hairs to win the Republican nomination. And he must. No Republican can gain any true leadership over the Party without breaking bread with the worst bigots and crooks America has to offer. All Democrats need do is have the guts to point this out by highlighting what these Conservatron demon piglets say, and what the Giulianis and McCains abide when they speak for themselves, and respond with the brilliant tropes of Obama’s convention speech. It’s the Party of Hope versus the Party of Hate.”

The Blood Libel About Fannie Mae

So, the new completely unhinged right-wing talking point that defies all measures of reality (that’s a feature, not a bug) is that the Democrats making Freddie and Fannie make mortgages to black people is the reason for the economic collapse.

We’re so far past What’s the Matter With Kansas—we’re simply to the point now where there is a reptilian-brain urge going on in the minds of American conservatives, that, I think is a manifestation of the collapse and failure of their movement. Like HAL-9000, they have conflicting orders and violence is the result. They know they are wrong but they know that they are not wrong—can’t be wrong. They’re so used to winning yet acting like they are oppressed that they simply can’t process losing and being the oppressor.

I just wonder what the fallout from this sub-mental short circuit of the conservative brain will mean. It does make me a bit afraid, honestly.

Snider and the Flyers: Conservatrons

Update: Larry Brooks to Flyers, Snider and NHL: Shame on you!

I’m a Devils fan so I’ve always hated the Flyers. Hating your rivals is part of what is fun in sports. There have been admirable players on the Flyers over the years, but leadership matters. An effective head of an organization filters his or her vision down to its final product, for better or worse.

The Flyers have always represented a sense of reactionary hatefulness. An unscientific sampling of their fans (and yes, some of my best friends are Flyers fans) shows a lust not just to win but to physically pummel their opponents; a belief that losing 5-2 is okay if you won the fight in the second period. This is reflected in the make ups of their teams over the last several years. They have always featured plenty of goons, rugged wingers and some skill, but have not managed to maintain a franchise goaltender. And when the opponent outphysicals them the Flyers are the first to cry foul and unfair. The whining after Scott Stevens KOed Lindross was epic and legion. Hey. you wanted tough, you wanted pummeling, you got it.

In essence, you have classic bully behavior. Sort of similar to Nilap’s terrifying rallies of late. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that Ed Snider, the Flyers head who is also chairman of the awful Comcast Corporation and a major Conservatron, has invited Nilap to drop the puck at the Flyers’ home opener.

Ah well, number for Flyers’ PA office is 1-215-465-4500.

Lets Go Devils!

Market Down Again

Yet another day of triple digit drops in the stock market.

People have recently won Nobel prizes in economics discuss the effect of psychology on economics and markets. This was supposed to be why we “had” to have the bailout. Pro-active measures would calm the markets down.

The problem is that the dogma of the irrational market is just as incorrect as the dogma of the perfectly rational market. The panicky investors are probably long gone, or most of them.

The reason prices keep going down may actually be a rational response to economic conditions. Here’s why. If the Fed itself is in the commercial paper market, it is because banks are giving short term cash to businesses. If they don’t have this cash, this can mean late payments, no payments, layoffs, temporary or permanent plant closings, and on down the line. The tightness of cash will certainly trickle down.

So, without the cash, you have a major amount of glue poured into the really, producing economy, not just the hypothetical market of paper and electrons.  And that is what the “rational” investor puts into his judgment about stock prices.

Of course, with each huge jump downward by “rational” investors, another round of panic may ensue.

But I don’t think the Fed can be the unsecured credit card for corporate America forever, or even for a long time. I think I read the plan was to discontinue the process in April 2009. Well, that’s fine if the ball starts rolling again, but if not, or if there are a lot of defaults, then what?

And just keeping cash isn’t going to help if we have to print our way out of this—just worth less and less.

Let's say he peaks today.

It’s 10/8. We have 27 days left. Almost all of the undecideds will typically break within the last two days according to overlay polls I’ve seen. So, let’s say there’s 25 days left for movement.

Barring a “game changer,” if Obama starts to slide in the polls at the same rate he has gone up, this is where he would be 25 days from now: Up about three points, about 47-44, according to the Pollster.com average.

And where was he 25 days ago electoral wise? 278.

Does this mean it’s over? No, it means that without a game changer, and with a lot of buyer’s remorse, Obama still probably ekes this out.

Palin Starts Fomenting Hate Speech And Threats of Violence

From Daily Kos:

Diarist NowAndZen says they’re turning into a mob, and that’s definitely a good way to put it.

In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric’s questions for her “less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media.” At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, “Sit down, boy.”

Let’s not forget the “KILL HIM” shouting and the “TERRORIST” shouting at the mention of Obama.

Palin and McCain have done nothing, of course, to denounce this behavior. It’s on purpose. Their racist adviser hired from Bush’s 2000 South Carolina campaign (against McCain…) is making sure that whitey is made about Obama.

Bring on the Conservatron Hate Machine!

Bush Patsy McCain is pulling out of Michigan. Remember back at the start of the general election campaign how Bush Patsy McCain was going to put New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey in play? Remember how Nilap was supposed to make Oregon and Washington State competitive again? In the immortal words of Elroy Jetson: “Eep-op-orp Uh Uh” and that means “hell no!”

Where Kerry had to sweat Oregon, New Jersey and even Hawaii Bush Patsy McCain must now defend North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana. Obama has pulled ahead in New Hampshire in recent days and is winning Pennsylvania. The only other Kerry state that may be close is Minnesota. Meanwhile, Obama has strong leads in New Mexico and Iowa. This means that any one of Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, West Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, or Nevada puts Obama/Biden over the top (although just a West Virginia or Nevada would result in an unsavory 269-269 tie Win).

Conservatron prostates are tickled because Nilap managed to mouth her verbal lobotomy at the VP debate without being possessed by a witch, but again, no one else cares about how she is avoiding an evil media filter. Disliking Katie Couric, Gwen Ifill and David Letterman doesn’t help pay the mortgage. Having a VP that must be sequestered and handled and cannot be a typical surrogate is a tremendous weakness. As much as Nilap may have “fired up the base” there is strong observational evidence that the Bush Patsy McCain ground game is not nearly as intense or robust as Obama’s. The money that Obama put into his field offices instead of advertising in the summer is paying off now.

Predictably, Bush Patsy McCain is going pure negative. HRC “threw the kitchen sink” in a similar circumstance. And it worked. The confounding factors were that Obama needed the HRC voters so he could not respond in kind. The ideological differences were minute, leaving little substance to disagree over. Obama also had to simultaneously contend with Bush Patsy McCain with one hand. Most importantly, Clinton/Clinton were far more formidable than Bush Patsy McCain/Nilap are. The Conservatrons will play the Association Card with Ayers and Reverend Wright as much as possible. Obama needs to stay cool, focus on the economy, and counter punch by bringing up Bush Patsy McCain’s random, weird Diva behavior, terrible proposals, Bush Patsyness, and history of lousy judgment. I still also think that Obama gains stature points from less attentive voters (who are often the undecideds) that are now starting to focus on the election just by being his able self at the debates.

Beyond that though, I wonder if the Conservatron Hate Machine is as powerful as it was four years ago. Consider the recent fake controversy over Gwen Ifill’s supposed bias towards Obama/Biden because of a book she is writing about black politicians post-Obama. This was a Nixonland classic: anti-“elitism” mixed with hints of quiet racism, and an elbow thrown at the media to boot. And it wiffed. It never made it past the Conservatron echo chamber to establish an MSM narrative. Methinks there are three reasons for this: 1.) There is enough of a liberal echo chamber now (the Netroots + Air America + Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow) to at least put the counter-argument that everyone knew about the Ifill book two months ago into the MSM. 2.) The media is more diffuse so it is harder to insert narratives into it than it was four years ago. 3.) No one cares! As I’ve been arguing for months, US versus THEM backlashes predicated on the upheavals of 1968 are not relevant to the problems of 2008. Ifill was equally worthless as a moderator as Jim Lehrer was, Biden wiped the floor with Nilap and Obama continues to gain slightly in the national tracking polls each day.

Oh, and with Bush Patsy McCain surrendering the field Obama gets to redirect most of his Michigan resources too!

OJ Attorney: This Was Payback

Of course it was, of course it was.

Even if the verdict had been not guilty, this would have been the refrain. The arrest was for payback. If it had been guilty with no jail time the refrain would have been this was payback. No matter what sentence OJ gets it will be payback.

And you know what? It probably is. Funny how that works.

The only question that remains is whether or not the appeals court in Nevada bites on this. It will depend. If Simpson gets on outsized sentence, they might reduce it. Otherwise, I kinda doubt it.


If Obama wins, it’s fun to imagine that we’ll be treated to a Palin/Romney Republican primary.

Vituperative and Vapid

Every time I listened to Nilap give an answer I felt like I somehow was made stupider just by experiencing her words. Nilap spun vituperative spite with vapid homilies like the worlds most disingenuous Beatnik. It was a verbal lobotomy. It was like being a dead Egyptian emperor and getting your brains sucked out of your head through the straw up your nose during the mummification process.

Nilap did nothing to get laughed off the stage but — as I’ve been saying since the first — there still is just no there there for anyone that isn’t a Conservatron concerned with her retrograde social stances. In a few cases Biden delivered knock out blows with his answers to her non-answers; in a few others he was not punchy enough. Biden out emoted her in the end with the aside about his wife, and Nilap’s hateful popular fifteen year-old response bordered on ugly.

Nilap won’t be removed from the ticket at this point, but at the end of the day she is a poor pick. Yes she excited the Consevatron base, but there is a huge opportunity cost associated with her not being a truly effective surrogate who is able to engage the press and public regularly.

Palin Deathwatch 8

Think there wasn’t a major gaffe? I’m not sure how much people are going to like that she was nasty about Biden’s dead wife.

Also, Alaska court refuses to stop Troopergate.

Having said that, this will be the last Palin Deathwatch unless, like a zombie, I revive it yet again. If they didn’t off her by now, it’s just too late.