Intrade has Miers confirmation at only 38%. Slate says 75%. Intrade seems to think she has 50 votes, but nevertheless will not be confirmed. Interesting. I don’t think she will be confirmed, either.
As for Cheney. Intrade says there is a 78% likelihood that Libby will be indicted for that minor, technical violation that led to Clinton’s impeachment. The NYT reported that Libby heard it from Cheney. Now, putting aside the question of whether Libby’s indictment would cause Cheney to resign (I doubt it) and assuming that Congress won’t impeach Cheney (they won’t), under what set of facts will Cheney himself be indicted?
We know that he told Libby, but not why. It seems hard to credit that he just happened to know about Plame. Chances are, he started doing plumber work on Joe Wilson and discovered the fact about his wife, and then began looking for ways to ruin him. The question is whether he reasonable should have known that telling Libby would have led to the disclosure–or, worse–if the intended it to. It’s a key piece of circumstantial evidence that there is no other indication that Libby leaked this kind of information. On the one hand, it means Cheney, everything else being equal, could have relied on his discretion; on the other hand, it means that someone had a plan. The question is whether it was just Libby, or if it went up to Cheney.
Nothing the Bush administration has done even comes close to pissing me off as much as the fact that they are now sending out their minions to argue that perjury is a technical violation. These people impeached a president over lying about sex, and now they want to minimize lying about a national security breach? It’s sickening, and, of course, they will get away with it.
What’s worse is, there will be some jackass Democrat who will decline to participate in the fiesta because he wants to appear consistent with the Clinton defense rhetoric of the 90s. Only attacking seems to work in politics. There are no points for the high road, sadly.
I’m sure 1,000 other people have thought of this, but I haven’t read it elsewhere: having Cheney, who apparently is not running in 2008, step aside, gives the heir apparent a chance to get a head start. (I wanted Clinton to resign to give Gore a chance myself. Would it have given him a few hundred more votes? Who knows. It turned out that he won anyway (; )
But who is that person? I think John McCain is the early favorite, but I doubt he’ll get the nod unless Bush is really desperate. Frist is mired in his own scandal. The other candidates are too far to the right to be taken seriously by the Repbulican machine. Interesting times…