Look at the facts and ask cui bono?
* Iran has been a state-sponsor of terrorism since at least its takeover by the ayatollahs.
* Iranian sponsored terrorism has been killing Americans for decades.
* Iran repelled the vaunted army of Saddam Hussein, showing a Viet Cong like willingness to take casualties.
* Iran sponsored anti-Saddam forces in Iraq, including Ahmed Chalabi.
* Iran sat by and watched as the United States defanged Iraq–three times (Gulf War, UN inspections, and this war).
* Iran’s agents, including especially Chalabi, convinced American hawks that invading Iraq would be a “cakewalk.”
* Even while the US and UN were disarming Iraq, Iran was continuing to press on with its own “civil” nuclear program (Iran has tons of oil and couldn’t give a Frenchman’s fuck about Kyoto).
* Iran sits by and watched as the US Army is stretched beyond its breaking point and the US’s leader presides over a bitterly divided country and has alienated almost all of the US’s traditional allies and has spent its last true ally, the UK.
* Iran escalates its nuclear program after this is done.
So, we know Chalabi was connected to Iranian intelligence. We know Chalabi promised this easy victory. Even if there’s no connection between Iran and al Qaeda (I can’t imagine there would be…) Iran was able to strike while the iron was hot and get the US stuck in a quagmire of Johnsonian proportions.
Even if we wanted to, we could not strike or allow Israel to strike Iran. First of all, Iraq would explode with Shiite attacks on “coalition” troops, and Iran’s own army would descend upon our troops in Iraq and possible Afghanistan.
Even if we pulled everything we had out of Korea, Europe, and the low-level readiness units stateside, we could only fight to a stalemate with the Iranians in a conventional war at this point. Of course, we would establish air supremacy in less than 24 hours, and I don’t imagine Iran’s navy would be able to do jack to ours in the Gulf–but could we possibly do the job with air power and an overstretched army–and what exactly would they be defending? Iraq? Where would/could they retreat? Israel?
The only way out of this is to use nuclear weapons, and if we do that without buying off the Russians, we’re probably at least in Cold War II. I can’t play out the scenario much further than that, but it’s scary.
I don’t have the liberal complex about whether it’s “fair” or not that only certain countries get to have nuclear weapons. Sorry. The fewer the better. If it were up to me, the nuclear powers would not exist, or be Iceland, Switzerland, and Micronesia. But as it happens, there are the US, Russia, France, UK, China, North Korea, India, and Pakistan, and, really, Israel.
That’s 9 and that’s 9 too many. No one else gets it just to be fair, especially Iran. If we worry now about Saddam passing some VX to bin Laden, or bin Laden getting his hands on some derelict Soviet nukes, imagine how much we should worry about Iran manufacturing them and simply giving them to Hizb’allah. And that’s just what happens in our backyard. Imagine the dynamics of the middle East without the US to stop Iran.
Well, we’re sure left with our dicks in our hands here. Our military should have been saved for real emergencies like Iran and Afghanistan. Bush probably doesn’t have the political capital to go to Iran, and so we’re probably just going to have to eat this shitburger.
Perhaps moreso that most readers of this blog or most of my friends, I believe in the military and am by no means a pacifist. The world is full of people who can only be stopped by force. But it sure seems like we hardly ever use the military for that; instead we use it to keep it big for no reason.
Bush, you moron. You should have held Afghanistan tight and then played brinksmanship with Iran, not Iraq. He probably doesn’t even know which is which unless he remembers which one tried to get his dad.