On the eve of the 2012 campaign

There’s so much to say about the Republican field that it really boils down to this: it’s wide open. The primaries both have a way of quickly snapping into focus and confounding prognosticators.

Romney, while not looking inevitable, still looks like the most likely to win. But while many have written about electability, one factor that is coming into play is the President’s rising popularity. The more likely Obama’s reelection seems, the more likely I believe many voters are to vote their ideological preference instead of voting tactically. Romney is the ideological preference of almost no GOP primary voters. He has never been able to get above the roughly 30% no matter what insane clown was the alternative flavor of the minute.

Would a brokered convention be in the cards? Anything is possible. But right now it looks like an unenthusiastic GOP base won’t turn out enough to put Romney over the top in the fall and Obama will be reelected.