Electoral Projection 10/29 – 0352 M186

I simply don’t have any more evidence to withhold Ohio and Florida from Obama anymore. In Ohio, Obama is up 6 in the pollster.com average and the last poll that showed a McCain lead was a Republican poll on 10/23. The last one before that was a Zogby Internet poll, which are junk.

You have to go back to 10/19 to get a non-partisan pollster to show a McCain lead there. That poll, the Fox/Rasmussen now shows Obama up by 4, outside its margin of error.

Fox/Rasmussen similary shows a pro-Obama swing of 5 points in Florida. In both states, Obama is hugely outspending both McCain and the RNC. Also, as noted below, it appears that Charlie Crist has decided to make Florida shenanigans free this time around.

The polls for North Carolina and Georgia seem to be underpolling black turnout based on the results in early voting, but I’m not willing to make that leap of faith yet, especially in Georgia. I think Obama will overperform the polls in Indiana for similar reasons, but also because (1) no one is an Indiana polling expert, (2) the polls got both the Dem primary and ’06 Congressional races slightly wrong. I think this is Obama’s ground game giving him a boost. I’d say the same thing about Missouri, but I’m not ready to go there. Yet.

I know there’s potential action in NE-2, Montana, Arizona, and even South Dakota and Mississippi. I don’t think it will play at the end of the day.

There’s just no way on earth McCain can lose Virginia, Florida, and Ohio and still win. That would more than make up for his Pennsylvania gambit, which isn’t going to work out anyway. We will probably know the results pretty soon after the polls close in Florida, which is central time, unless we’ve already heard from North Carolina or Georgia.

If something doesn’t go right, we’ll know it early. Then we’ll need to pay VERY close attention to Colorado and Nevada. Obama wins even without all the bonus states and Pennsylvania with those two. For that to happen, something must be going wrong. Either way, I think we’ll know early this time.

I’ll predict 56-1-1-42 in the Senate. Snowe, Collins, and Spectre (and, sigh, Liebermann) will need to be bought to get things clotured. 60 without Libermann would have been nice, but because the RNC got back in this fight in time, that’s probably not going to happen. But look at the 2010 map…possibilities abound.

House: 245-197. Not as huge as some people thought—mostly because the RNC realized they had to focus on this because of McCain’s failing.

Instead of weekly, I’ll be updating again on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.