This map is again a very conservative picture of the polls at the state level. McCain’s mini bounce over the last week appears over, so concrete is probably setting in and that reflects more noise than signal.
I still believe that Indiana isn’t being polled right by anyone besides Selzer, and even discounting that Obama is showing a lead there. I moved it over last week on “faith.” I’m doing the same with North Dakota. It’s just not a state full of extremists, and I think people are having trouble measuring it like Indiana, since no one has really bothered. My wife has relatives and I just have a “feeling” about it.
The rest are my conservative estimations. Notice that eliminating my “faith based” picks, Obama still wins.