HRC and the “Vision Thing”

Back in the 2008 Democratic Primary I wrote that, unlike Obama, HRC was unable to stitch her worthy policy proposals into something more than the sum of their parts. That is, HRC lacked what Bush I referred to as “the vision thing”. That is her biggest weakness as a politician. It’s hurting her now. Yes, the Comey e-mail letter is a nothingburger about a nothingburger. Yes, it’s smarmy and stupid on his part. Yes, it sucks. Yes, it’s unfair. But, having failed to make her candidacy about one or two big things like an infrastructure project(s), addressing global warming, or anything else HRC cannot pivot from the distraction of Comey’s e-mail interference and say, what’s important is focusing on my plan to do X, oh, AND my opponent is a bozo potemkin candidate Human-Butterscotch-Dairy-Queen-Dip-Cone-With-A-Klan-Hat that you wouldn’t trust to babysit your nine-year old daughter. HRC only has the negative case to make against Mr. T and not the corresponding positive case to make for herself.

I’m not sure if Team Clinton could have added substance to the hydrogenated oil and Russian argot wheat gruel of this gruesome campaign. The venal Media’s need to chase its own tail over every ludicrous Mr. T controversy and Mean Girl spat took all the O2 out of the room. To their credit, this flummoxed the Conservatron Also Rans and Team Clinton won on this terrain and was coasting to victory before Comey’s partisan thumb-on-the-scaling. Of course, the agonizing thing is that HRC does have intelligent plans to address most every issue facing America, but it’s too late to focus on those now.

In an election where both candidates are disliked the last bit of character besmirching, lame as it may be, will be stuck to HRC.

Previously, I had HRC’s superior ground game and a general election repeat of the fact that most late deciders went against Mr. T in the Republican primaries as creating a rout for HRC. My final prediction now: HRC wins the Obama 2012 States + NC but minus Iowa and Ohio. Clinton under-performs Obama throughout the Northeast and Midwest but still wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and the rest relatively easily. White educated Republicans provide the margin of victory, barely, in NC and FLA despite lower black turnout than 2012. HRC wins Nevada surprisingly easily. Arizona will be under 5 for Mr. T and Texas will be under 8. Almost. Next time. Utah is a random wild card.

Key Senate Races:

ILL – Duckworth

Wisc – Feingold

NH – Hasan (barely)

Penn – McGinty

NV – Masto (Surprisingly easily)

IND – Bayh

MO – Kander (Squeaker, running as disestablismentarian versus Bond)

NC – Burr

FLA – Marco Polo

Burr and Marco Polo will owe their Senate seats to Comey. The Comey-over also keeps Dem gains in the House to a minimum, maybe 5 seats but hopefully including the worthless Issa in CA.

 

Advertisements

Margin Prediction

I think my results prediction from August is pretty damn good. If I had it to do over again, I would put Indiana in the Dems column for senate and be more likely to give them 51 votes. I might have to think harder about Arizona.

I’m going to call the final margin at 50-40. McMullin, Johnson, and Stein will add up to about 10. It’s a blowout by contemporary standards but the two party vote will keep it from doing much more in the electoral college than I originally thought. Maybe Arizona, maybe NE-2.

Jerry Fallwell

At this point what is the counterargument that “evangelicals” are nothing more than a white nationalist group? When I first read that the group emerged as a reaction to segregation and pretended it was in reaction to Roe v. Wade, I thought it was a bit much. Sometimes movements outgrow their original intent. But with Fallwell saying he would vote for Trump even if he liked rape, there’s no other answer. Family values are meaningless unless they advance white nationalism.

The Mormons are shaming the so-called Christians. At least they are standing on their values.

The One Real Major Flaw With Hillary

I haven’t heard anyone mention this since the 2000s.

It’s not that she’s corrupt. She’s not. It’s not that she’s too hawkish or too conservative or too liberal or too establishment or too radical. It’s not that she doesn’t fellate the media with access. In fact, none of the criticisms that have been leveled at her this year made any sense to me and apparently, very few of them had any real traction in comparison with Trump’s flaws.

What bothers me most about Hillary is that her husband was president. Does that make me sexist? It bothers me because it’s quasi-dynastic. I am not saying she doesn’t deserve it on her own merit. On the contrary, there’s an argument that in a more female-equal society, it would have been Hillary elected in 1992. Fine. But it wasn’t.

I didn’t like that at all about George W. Bush and largely opposed Jeb Bush for that reason first of all. W got away with being a right-wing President because most people believed his presidency would be a repeat of his father’s—but oh boy.

On the other hand, Bill Clinton was a fine president who was a flawed husband. I believe Hillary will be a great president even if there is a quasi-dynastic edge to her election. But while we cannot risk another below par president, much less another W-scale disaster, let alone the whirlwind of Trump, it is nonetheless troubling that a Bush or a Clinton will have been in office for so much of the recent decades. I don’t think it’s an optimal position.

Might it be a way to have a “third term” of a popular president? Sure. George Wallace did this in Alabama and the Kirchners did it in Argentina. But it just seems a bit strange. Maybe the idea got going with RFK as a way to press rewind on the JFK assassination and Teddy for the same reasons. Maybe people want to press rewind to the 90s more than they admit. (I fully admit it.)

Obama was a gifted politician and the Iraq war issue was real, but some of me often wonders if this concern, maybe in the form of boredom, had more to do with it in 2008. Obama was also a reasonable policy equivalent and Sanders was not.

I would have been very torn between Hillary and Joe Biden.

 

Mr. T’s “Reynolds” Access Hollywood Video

[Full Company]

The Access Hollywood Video

[Clinton/Kaine/Obama]

Have you seen thish?

[Clinton]

Creepy Orange Hitler does unwanted gropes of vag hair

And he said it all right there

[Obama]

Highlights!

[Orange Hitler]

The charge against me is connection with one

Alt-Right for the purpose of improper fascism and anti-semetism

My real crime is frequent sexual assault

As a star grabbing pussies

Without her knowing consent

[Kaine/Obama]

Damn!

[Orange Hitler]

I had frequent sexual harassments

Most of them at my own penthouse

[Kaine]

At his own penthouse!

[Obama]

At his own penthouse!

[Deep Voice]

Day-um!

[Orange Hitler]

I did this in front of my children

My typical visit as Ivanka’s father

[Kaine/Obama]

No….

[Company]

Booo!

[Clinton]

He’s neveh gon’ be president now!

[Kaine/Obama]

Neveh gon’ be president now!

[Clinton]

He’s neveh gon’ be president now!

[Kaine/Obama]

Neveh gon’ be president now!

[Clinton]

That’s one less thing to worry about!

[Clinton/Kaine/Obama}

That’s one less thing to worry about!

======================================================

All “Hamilton” parodies aside… can you, for just one second, imagine the reaction if Obama had ever been caught on tape saying anything remotely like this?

HRC Takes One For The Team

This has been the theme of her political life. In 1975, she moved to Arkansas to marry Bill. After Bill’s first term as governor when he lost reelection, she remade her image to help him win. He did. When Bill’s presidential campaign got off to a rocky start due to Gennifer Flowers, she stood by him. When her health care bill failed, she stood down and became a more traditional first lady.

When Bill had an affair with an intern, she stood by him and eventually reconciled instead of divorcing and beginning her own political career.

I would argue that the Iraq vote was a vote the party needed too, but maybe that’s a bridge too far. (Remember: the leadership wanted this issue over with so they could run the 2002 election on the basis of economics.)

When Obama came out of nowhere and won the nomination from her, she teamed up and became one of his strongest political allies even with less policy control over the role of Secretary of State than was normal.

No one could be more opposite than Trump, who denies losses, cannot accept blame, refuses to admit mistakes, and has never stayed loyal to a wife.

If Trump wants to bring up Bill’s affairs, Hillary should respond with this line. She is a team player. She puts those who need her ahead of herself and she always has. Trump never has.

A Post-Debate Rant

Trump is a clown. There is no other way to put it. He constantly involves himself in idiocy, knows nothing. And (I never thought I’d write this) at least George W. Bush seemed to know he needed people to tell him what to do. Not only does Trump appear to hire shitehouse advisors, he doesn’t listen to them. I guarantee none of his advisors said, “yeah, fuck preparing for the debate.”

But this post-debate minitraversy about Miss Puerto Rico? He called her Miss Piggy and that’s “fat shaming?”

This is one of these college/liberal only memes that just sounds retarded to the rest of the country. Not only that, but she was a model or a beauty queen. No one else asks for it, but if you’re one of those things, you are doing your thing based on your looks. You were not forced to be in a beauty pageant.

Now, calling Rosie O’Donnell a pig—and she’s not attractive—is one thing. But Rosie is not in the business of being attractive. She’s a comedian and a talking head. Other misogynist attacks Trump has leveled against women are equally as irrelevant to what they were doing. Unless it was Megyn Kelly’s job to be pregnant, her being on her period is irrelevant, for example.

But when these bizarre new social rules are held against people—we can’t just beauty queens by their looks—it only fosters the believe that P.C. is out of control. (Spoiler alert: it is!)

Now, as for “fat shaming”: look, judging people by things other than their character is not what leaders of that echelon should do. But it is what most people do. Most people do make fun of people in not nice ways and when you aren’t careful about how you attack leaders for doing it, you’re attacking followers.

And you can count me as one of those people who doesn’t think fat is good. I expect no one to share my likes and dislikes, but I also expect no one to try and talk me out of my likes and dislikes. So, no, I will probably never find a 300 pound woman attractive. I also refuse to believe that a few “critical studies” professors are smarter than the “medical establishment” and can “prove” that being morbidly obese is actually healthy. Or that people who actually eat less calories than they consume don’t lose weight. Or that genetics are any barrier to weight loss.

It’s that whole reality-based, pro-science thing I have that is increasingly at odds with the overgrown children who think the whole world is kindergarten and no hurt feelings are allowed.