Scotland

Really, when you think about it neither independence nor a “no” vote is the worst answer for Scotland. What’s about to happen seems to be: a close vote. Current polls show just under 50% voting against independence, about 6% more than the yes vote with the remainder undecided. The late breakers seem to be going towards ‘yes’ which is odd in a referendum. Still, it’s unclear whether these are “likely voters” or not. Older folks are hugely against independence and are more likely to vote. 

Anything less than a 10% margin of victory for either side will be terrible for Scotland. Can you take such a major step with only 50% support? On the contrary, can you deny that many people’s wish for self-determination?

This isn’t to say that Westminster should have set the referendum up to requirer a supermajority, which probably would have only backfired. But one would have hoped that there would have been more clarity this late in the game. With so many undecideds and such a small margin (and perhaps not the gold-standard polling we are used to in American races of this magnitude) this late, it’s a recipe for chaos.

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