Shifting Coalition? Part II

While I’m cautiously optimistic about the Latinopocalypse facing the GOP, I can see their dilemma. Demographically, they may be in trouble in the electoral college. Even if Latinismo costs Democrats in some midwestern states, if they have a dead lock on Florida, Texas, and Arizona, they can lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and all the other Romney states and still have 288 EVs. Hillary ought to head to Texas, not Iowa.

That may keep the White House blue for a long time. The House may not change hands until 2022 when (if) some gerrymandering can be undone, or done the other way. The Senate, meanwhile, seems unlikely to shift that much even if off years given these dynamics.

But what can they do? I think Democrats being for “amnesty” is far less likely to cost them the upper midwest than Republicans being for it will make them vulnerable in strange places in downticket races.

So, what’s left. Can they moderate on abortion? No, same problem. On climate change? Maybe, sorta, in no substantive kind of way. On gays? Almost as bad as an abortion sell out. Taxes? That would destroy their base of funding. On spending? Hmm. That worked for Bush. Maybe deficit spending is their ticket? Move to the right on foreign policy? That might work, except that this isn’t going to do much unless there’s a war already started. Moving to the left? That seemed to work for Rand Paul, actually.

Where they will start to have problems is at the weakest point, which is the connection between the low tax freaks and the social right.

The Dems actually have more of an opportunity here, more apropos of the last post on this topic. They could move to the right on a few things without losing too much support and leave only cranks on the right and Naderites on the left divided and conquered.

You might try and declare the culture wars “over” after gay marriage gets legalized. I know, that’s been tried before. I really have no idea exactly how this might take shape, but it’s possible. Or just stand for Obamaism and rake in the EVs as is.