I’ve always been repelled by engaging in the discussion of whether being gay was a choice. To me, it just doesn’t matter. I’m all for the rights of people born gay to have heterosex and act hetero and all for people born straight to have gay sex and act gay, and a fortiori for people born gay to be gay and people born straight to be straight. But I understand the need for this argument. It’s a basic principle of American fairness that we don’t have the way we were born held against us.
So, I don’t think the prospects of the transgendered are all that great. I’m not sure it will be considered anything other than a choice, even if we can be convinced that people are born with a different gender identity. I also think that liberalization towards gays will cover most of the bases, leaving the question of transgendered rights down to their gender appearance in the workplace and so on.
I don’t think this will come easy, if at all. The most powerful arguments against discrimination against gays are (1) that classic American fairness about how you were born, and (2) ironically to some, the need to have stable family groups (gay marriage and adoption, etc.); institutionalizing a kind of relationship that exists anyway to allow for stability is important to society. Does this work for the T in LGBT?
That’ll be a heavy lift, I think.