When a bad poll hits…

There are two sides to it: (1) people who freak out, and (2) people who deny it means anything.  Group 1 accuses group 2 of being in denial and group 2 accuses group 1 of overreacting and naivete. 

Of course McCain was going to get a convention bump.  And it does in fact look like the 54-44 McCain poll is an outlier, with one poll even showing Obama up by a point.  It’s also true that the national polls don’t matter–to an extent.

But that doesn’t mean that the race isn’t getting even tighter.  It also doesn’t mean that if you think this election means what I think it means—a McCain win is a stamp of approval on everything Bush did.  On all of the lying, pilfering, trashing of foreign relations, trashing of the economy, and dictatorial exercises of power—that you shouldn’t be deadly concerned about anything that looks bad.

I’m having a bad year financially.  The worst since I got into the job world, but I am trying to scrape up money for Obama, someone that I did not vote for in the primaries and someone that has not made a lot of choices that I like.  But we can’t allow McCain.  There’s not much else I can do about it here in California, but earn what money I can and send it to places like Nevada to get EVs.

Sure, the poll doesn’t mean the election is over and it doesn’t mean that the “why isn’t Obama ahead by more meme” isn’t silly (though I do often wonder that myself) but it’s not news I want to hear and it is giving me serious agita.

Palin's Psycho "Church"

This pretty much scares the shit out of me.

Cell-phone anointing? I mean, come on.  Either these people are taking something stronger than I ever saw in college (by a few orders or magnitude) or they are just nucking futs.  This is what we want to be a heartbeat away, Caribou Barbie Possessed By the “Spirit”?

UPDATE: Kevin Nealon to the rescue:

Dear Dems

It’s actually not about issues. You say people aren’t stupid and care about the issues, and you’re right. The thing is, people at least think they know where the parties are on the issues. See, so the rest is boring except for hero stories.

Keep telling us about Joe Biden growing up poor and scrappy. Keep telling us about how Obama didn’t pay off his student loans until he wrote his book.

…and keep telling us about how McCain ditched his first wife after he found out she wasn’t hot anymore, and tell us about how Sarah Palin is a racist vindictive bitch.

Then, after you win the popularity contest, you throw out the candy. Obama just needs to say TAX CUT TAX CUT TAX CUT TAX CUT TAX CUT MOST MASSIVE TAX CUT and let the pundits explain how it’s actually an increase for the top 5% or whatever but it’s a TAX CUT TAX CUT TAX CUT.

ADULTERER MCCAIN ADULTERER ADULTERER MCCAIN DEFICIT SPENDING MCCAIN

Like that.

No charge. (I learned everything I needed to know from high school elections. So should you.)

Conservatron "Big Love"?

According to Vanity Fair Cindy McCain spent $300,000 on her convention night clothing. I guess it takes that kind of moolah to look like a Dairy Queen butterscotch dip cone and of course, relate to the values of ordinary small town folk.

I wonder if the First Wife is threatened by the new Trophy Vice and needed to put on a dominance display. Bush Patsy McCain should consult Mitt Romney on how to handle this situation.

Nilap Strategery II

Three days ago I wrote this:

“Of course Bush Patsy McCain and his Rover handlers knew about the Bristol Bany! Their strategy was to carefully roll Nilap out as an easily emphatic “hockey mom”. Then, once the teenage pregnancy popped out, goad the MSM to, hopefully — if you’re a Conservatron — with an assist from the Obama campaign, pile on to the Nilap’s to the point of ridicule and meanness. The Conservatrons would then use the echo chamber of their theofascist wing, which is so excited about Nilap, to ferment a backlash against the nasty treatment of this “everywoman” who is so lovingly just contending with a plain ol’ difficult mother/daughter situation just like any tough working mom would do! Aw schucks!

The second half of this strategy would be to go ultra-negative on Obama and hope that the Conservatron base + outraged Clintonettes turned Nilapsers + terrified independents would barely get Bush Patsy McCain a 49.5% to 48.9% sort of victory….”

I think I got a lot of this correct. The Conservatrons gambled that their sanctimonious theofascist wing wouldn’t care about a teenage pregnancy from one of their own; and the hypocrites proved them right. {Just imagine if one of Al Gore’s teenage daughters was pregnant in 2000} The brouhaha sucked up all of the oxygen and created genuine drama for Nilap’s speech. Had she blown it, that would’ve been the end of the campaign — that was a huge risk. To her credit she delivered the 36 Minute Hate well, except for when she tried to talk of anything of substance at which point she flailed hopelessly in the deep end. All and all, it was a Krispy Kreme Donut iced with cyanide.

This gamble was designed to turn the election towards cultural issues (abortion) and personality (hockey mom), while allowing the Conservatrons to curdle into their typically whiny crouch and bitch about the media and, of course, avoid mentioning the disaster of the Bush years.

The social issues part of this putsch worked perfectly; where the strategy fell short was with the rest of the Nilap story that was revealed. The history of petty feuds, abuse of power and vitriol undercuts the aw schucks image. The stretches on military experience were laughable. Any sort of “reformer” image is easily complicated by her pork seeking. Like Nixon, Nilap seems to be the sort of person who thrives on hatred and rivalries, at every level she has been in public life she has created enemies. Nilap is the spiteful popular girl who always gets killed first in a slasher movie. The fact that she has nothing relevant to say to people outside of the theofascist wing of the Republican Party will not be hidden forever.

Update: The Kilkenny letter appears to be genuine. It is just one person’s word, but it does concur with my sense of Nilap: http://www.andrys.com/palin-kilkenny.html

Are the Palin attacks sexist??

If by that do you mean would I be saying the same exact things if she weren’t a woman the answer is yes, some of the criticisms are altered to reflect the fact of her gender, like the use of the pronoun ‘she’.

But I have always been an equal opportunity attack dog, and here the case is no different.  But what is the question of sexism really about? Is it about perfect point-by-point sameness for everything women do, or is it about the societal structures that prevent women from being autonomous as much as men?

I would bet that most women wouldn’t want, even if it were realistic, to deny their femininity—a dig made at Hillary in praise of Palin.  It’s not about wearing ties or playing golf.  It’s about can I pursue my dreams.

Biology has a lot to say about that.  And women pressed into involuntary servitude as vessels for blastocysts they do not wish to bear, children they do not wish to have or raise can never have a chance of being equal in any meaningful sense.  

I don’t dispute that, at least at some point, when the fetus becomes viable, it gains its own rights.  But when its still part of mom, mom has a say.  Because if mom doesn’t, mom either has to become an asexual being or give up on being a lawyer, or a doctor, or a soccer player.  But remember, Palin’s not just about reversing Roe v. Wade or changing the date of viability, or banning d&x (“partial birth”), or limiting it to risks to the mother.  She’s about none, ever.  And also these same folks aren’t just about the relatively pathos-infused realities of abortion.  They want to stop people from having sex that doesn’t make kids, period, forever.  A sizeable minority may oppose abortion, but how many people would ban themselves from ever being allowed to have non-procreative sex?  Proof is in the pudding: if abortion were the real issue, then why on earth would “conservatives” block RU486?! Having a dispenser of that in every bathroom in the world would eliminate abortion!

But asskicking careers isn’t what all women want.  Some are stoked to be moms. I’m glad mine was. But I wouldn’t want a mom who had no choice (say because she was the daughter of a politician and also a minor) but to bear me, or but to be a child bearer and home maker, without any other choice, not in my existence, but in hers.

But men face none of these problems.  So, until we come to grips with this stuff, we’ll never start figuring out whether it really matters if women can play golf at Augusta. Nancy Pelosi and Sandra Day O’Connor and Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin mean jack shit if they got in those positions while still locked into 18th century gender roles.  

So, to the extent that we’re supposed to think that Palin’s nomination or even (God forbid) election is some kind of victory for women just because she’s a woman is the sexist thought, not the criticism based on the fact that she wants to make the choice for all women, not just about abortion, but about limiting the scope of their entire potential being to that of a Norman Rockwell painting and nothing else.

Hillary, on the other hand, who this sexist supported in the primaries, well, Hillary as president or vice president or senator or majority leader—well, that means something. Why? Because she didn’t do it by being the church’s model of a perfect woman.  She did it by kicking ass and working twice as hard for half the reward for years and years, and still basically had to be married to a powerful man to get a chance to shine on her own.

No one picked Hillary because she’s a piece of ass.

Microsoft Doesn't Suck—It Just Shouldn't Be The Only Option

A professor at my college came into the technology committee meeting (of which I was the student rep) and harangued us for not eliminating Windows-based systems from campus in favor of Macintoshes.  This was in 1996 or 97.  This professor was a self-styled anarchist and hated corporations and did not want us to support Microsoft anymore. 

I timidly point out that Apple was a for-profit corporation too, wasn’t it?  My insolence at making such a suggestion was returned by a condescending and unprofessional tirade.  Apparently, he realized my point later on when he became a big Linux advocate. But at that time, Linux just wasn’t ready for anything, especially writing papers and doing school work.  Heck, at the time, the Mac could barely do that–most people were still using PINE for email on campus and exchanging file formats was a bitch.

I would have gone on to make that point if I hadn’t been dismissed by the guy as a corporate sell out consumerist douche that I did understand that Microsoft was engaging in monopolistic tactics and that I did not approve of that, but didn’t see a realistic alternative.

(Realistic was a word that essentially made you a fascist at Pitzer College, though.)

But at that time, Macs were going nowhere and their higher price did not justify their slightly better user interface, nor did that interface make up for the lack of support that existed.  Up until about 1995, I used Macs and preferred them for everything except gaming.  Starting again in 2002, I resumed using Macs and have ever since. 

The reason is, during those time frames they were better.  During the middle frame they were not.

I say that to say this: Microsoft makes some really good products.  They also make so really shitty ones.  For example, as much as I hate Sun’s Java, I don’t think making up your own version, and then when that gets eliminated replacing it with the .NET framework that is limited to Windows machines makes any sense.

It may not work as well, but I can write Cocoa applications that work on Linux and Windows—there’s no legal barrier there.  I can’t do that cross-coding for .NET.  The same can be said of ASP or a number of other Windows technologies.

Most recently, they tried to hoodwink that international standards organization into approving their file format that only their software can realistically read.  But it didn’t work and it’s not working because their iron grip on standards is evaporating, partly thanks to Linux, but mostly thanks to Apple.

But I wouldn’t say we should do away with everything Microsoft makes, nor should we replace the now-leading edge Apple as the monopoly.

The history of the personal computer has been a history of competing platforms being eliminated when one hits a critical user mass because the different systems can’t talk to each other.  Now that that is no longer the case, and different systems can communicate with open standards, there’s no legitimate excuse to have platform competition.

Trust me, if Windows 7 is better than Snow Leopard, I’m using it.

Bush Patsy McCain Lays An Egg

By and large that was a boiler plate speech that any Conservatron would have made against any Democrat in the last 40 years. Without the context it could just as well have been a Fourth of July stump speech by the wannabe Representative of Michigan’s 4th. The recollection of the war hero piece was strong, but Bush Patsy McCain ruined it by being snarky and turning it into a cudgel. At the end of that bit I felt like I had just earned extra credit in my seventh grade social studies class.

The speech was so weak because it was apologetic. After serving penance for being a Conservatron, Bush Patsy McCain said that Republicans “believe in rewarding hard work” and “a strong defense”! Well, ya’ don’t say! So do I! I believe in the deliciousness of ice cream too! I know that Bush Patsy McCain was using fnords based on ancient racially-tinged characterizations of the Great Society and left-wing anti-Vietnam war movement; but the implication that you favor hard work and your opponent doesn’t sounds childish.

Sad fact is, Bush Patsy McCain was only relevant when he was debasing the Republican Party and the “establishment” that he has been a part of for 26 years.

This was a candle compared to Obama’s magnetic New Jacksonianism. The replacement of the crowd of real people that watched Obama’s speech with Conservatron robots was stark and, as is always the case with Republicans, a little creepy.

Oh, and I loved the “McCain Mavrick” sign. Maybe that guy went to a charter school.

Update: Bleeeh! What is it about Conservatron Convention Crowds that just screams “worst sex ever!”

Palin attended five colleges in six years before graduating from the University of Idaho in 1987

What’s the difference between Odysseus and a hockey mom? Lipstick.

Field Marshall Palin started her career at (1) Hawaii Pacific University, then to (2) North Idaho College, near where Mark Fuhrman lives, then to (3) the University of Idaho, then to (4) Matanuska-Susitna College in Alaska (which I hear is the Harvard of the North), then back to (5) Idaho.

Umm. I think that’s really four. 

Something tells me that her shitty education is only going to make her more popular.  It worked for W.

Repubs: "Enough Nilap Nonsense!" But Is There Any Sense?

Tonight, in what will be the most maudlin moment in modern American history, a cavalcade of creepy cardboard cutout sanctimonious moralizers will give a standing O to seventeen year old Prego Bristol and The Fucking Redneck. A Kodiak moment for hypocrites everywhere.

The conventional wisdom is that Nilap (“Nil” meaning “no” and “ap” meaning “aptitude,” by the way) just needs to avoid a gaffe and an overall sense of Quayleness to pass this test. A nice getting to know you might have sufficed had Nilap’s supposed claim to reformer fame not been contradicted by past actions, like being for the bridge to nowhere before she was agianst. To earn America’s respect after this goopy soap opera, Nilap needs to have something meaningful to say about jobs, the economy, and even foreign policy. The “normalness” of Prego seventeen year olds, “The Fuckin’ Redneck,” DUIs, Jews for Jesus, petty small town hatreds, hunting wildlife from helicopters, firing librarians, denying global warming, fighting weird in-law rivalries through firing public servants, and playing footsie with half-baked secessionist parties just won’t cut the mustard.

Even absent all of the scandalous personal details, it appears that for Nilap there is no there there. Dems should quickly contradict every bogus claim she makes and counter punch like crazy for the rest of the Conservatron Convention.

Palin hearts Jews for Jesus

Messianic “Jew” bullshit promoted by Palin’s pastor.

So, even though the New Testament essentially revokes the Torah, this somehow works for some people. Oy.

UPDATE: McCain camp denies that she agress with JFJ that Israel terrorism is for rejecting Christ.  Goes no further.

Questions remain about Trig

Check this piece out.

If Trig was Sarah Palin’s, her water broke in fucking Dallas and she flew home, skipped the hospital with a natal intensive care unit and drove another hour to a non-specialist to have the baby and was back at work in three days, all with a premature baby at risk for Down syndrome?

Gevalt.  Methinks she is either going to get caught with a lie here, and this is Bristol’s second time at the rodeo, or else she should go to prison for child endangerment, since, you know after all, fetuses are equal, right?

Conservatron Nilap Spin Update

As predicted below, the “victimization” of the everymom continues. Supposedly, Nilap’s failure to teach her daughter about contraception and the existence of a down syndrome baby only make her more “normal.”

Problem is, we are electing a vice-president, not a mascot.

Per “An Evolutionary Psychology of Leader/Follower Relations” all aspects of a leader’s life are valid because a leader needs the authority to organize people and punish free riders. A follower is less likely to trust in a leader they consider immoral, and of bad judgment, no matter how good his policies are.

So how do some politicians survive personal scandals like Nilap’s? Simple, their policies and ideas are relevant.

Look at the master. Bill Clinton survived countless bimbo eruptions in ’92 by continuing to talk to people, to understand their frustrations, and explain what he could do about it. His hornballery became “well that’s just how people are” rather than a disqualification because his ideas were meaningful to a multitude of Americans. What did Bubba do at his SOTU at the height of Monicagate? He just talked about policies, ideas and the country while ignoring the scandal. The Conservatrons and MSM hated it; the people loved it.

The Conservatrons don’t care about Nilap’s petty small-town rivalries, the hypocrisy embedded in her daughters tummy by a “fucking redneck,” or the rest because her goof city stances on creationism and abortion etc. are important to them.

I suspect the rest of America is not concerned with how well they can relate to Nilap. Her “normalness” does not put food on the table or help pay the mortgage. Most importantly, it does not demonstrate that she can be president. Nate nailed this with his post “The Essential Difference” on fivethirtyeight.com: a VP becomes President in a time of crisis. The President has just been assassinated, killed in an accident or a health tragedy, or is medically disabled. We all know the picture of LBJ being sworn in on an airplane, Jackie Kennedy beside him, with JFK’s dead body in the cargo hold. Are you really comfortable with Sarah Nilap playing the LBJ role in a similar tragedy?

I honestly cannot fathom how anyone takes Bush Patsy McCain, Nilap or the Conservatrons seriously at this point.

ZOMG! Is Bristol's "man" Jewish?!!@1!@!!

Heeb wonders out loud.

OK, so that wouldn’t make the baby Jewish, unless, gasp! you go according to the liberal Reform movement that allows patrilineal descent.  I’m going with the Orthodox on this one–I don’t really think Baby Bristol+Levi would be a mensch fomenting armaggeddon in Israel and all.

Sarah Palin Deathwatch

Wonkette has the Sarah Palin “premature withdrawal” watch here.  As my sister put it, too bad the “fuckin’ redneck” didn’t prematurely withdraw with Bristol.

Intrade’s market had Joe Biden in the 90s before the announcement, and near 100 after it.  Palin? She’s still at 94.

So, now all of the Republicans want us to be nice to family members? They don’t want mean and they don’t want smears?  Hmph. You only have to go back a few weeks to John Edwards… nevermind.  The hypocrisy is mind blowing.

UPDATE: Who vetted Palin? Dobson and Norquist.

Last week, while the media focused almost obsessively on the DNC’s spectacle in Denver, the country’s most influential conservatives met quietly at a hotel in downtown Minneapolis to get to know Sarah Palin. The assembled were members of theCouncil for National Policy, an ultra-secretive cabal that networks wealthy right-wing donors together with top conservative operatives to plan long-term movement strategy.

CNP members have included Tony Perkins, James Dobson, Grover Norquist, Tim LaHaye and Paul Weyrich. At a secret 2000 meeting of the CNP, George W. Bush promised to nominate only pro-life judges; in 2004, then-Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist told the group, “The destiny of the nation is on the shoulders of the conservative movement.” This year, thanks to Sarah Palin’s selection, the movement may have finally aligned itself behind the campaign of John McCain.

In other words, they either told McCain to pick her or they would be staying home… or they punk’d him. Tim LaHaye–what he writes books about the end of the world… fuck me. These people are crazy.

UPDATE: Wow. Just… Wow.  Damn, she’s kind of hot….. The only thing missing from this pic is some camel toe–or maybe “moose knuckle” since she’s from Aleyeska.

Eureka! Nilap Strategery Revealed!

A moment of clarity:

Of course Bush Patsy McCain and his Rover handlers knew about the Bristol Bany! Their strategy was to carefully roll Nilap out as an easily emphatic “hockey mom”. Then, once the teenage pregnancy popped out, goad the MSM to, hopefully — if you’re a Conservatron — with an assist from the Obama campaign, pile on to the Nilap’s to the point of ridicule and meanness. The Conservatrons would then use the echo chamber of their theofascist wing, which is so excited about Nilap, to ferment a backlash against the nasty treatment of this “everywoman” who is so lovingly just contending with a plain ol’ difficult mother/daughter situation just like any tough working mom would do! Aw schucks!

Recall that the backlash by boomer women over HRC’s New Hampshire tear up was egged on by the condescending hee haw of Conservatron swine like Rush Limbaugh. Methinks the Conservatrons were hoping to manufacture that lightening in a bottle here. Note that the Bush Patsy McCain camp said they were revealing the Great Land Prego due to the rumors of “liberal bloggers” not because this is the sort of crap that every Prez or Veep family must cough up.

The second half of this strategy would be to go ultra-negative on Obama and hope that the Conservatron base + outraged Clintonettes turned Nilapsers + terrified independents would barely get Bush Patsy McCain a 49.5% to 48.9% sort of victory.

With an Act of God named Gustav sucking up all the oxygen, however, the Nilap family values are left flapping in the wind like so many maternity dresses with no media bloviators about to create or defend a “victim”. Meanwhile, Generalissimo Bush’s reprehensible handling of Katrina has forced Bush Patsy McCain to play “statesman” with Gustav (Demonstrating basic concern for your fellow human counts as “statesman” if you’re a Conservatron), scotching one day of the convention and making it incredibly difficult to pull off the remainder of the scheduled Four Day Hate without looking like an utter douche. Obama wisely said that the Nilap grandkidlet is off limits. Now Nilap will have to prove that she should be one injured elderly heartbeat away from the presidency given her non-existent resume on her own accord.

Update: The McCain camp, led by Rove Acolyte Schmidt, is now calling the Nilap coverage “offensive.”

Jamie Lynn Palin

So the Eagleton scenario continues.

Palin’s daughter is now 5 months pregnant, 17 years old, and unmarried.  Though she will marry the dad.  Umm… and this is OK with the “excited” Christian Right?

So, just so I’m sure:

teenage sex = ok
fornication = ok
premarital sex = ok

but abortion not ok.

These people have such wonderful family values. 

Palin is turning into a process story about McCain’s failure to vet, which goes to the “judgment” argument.