Palin Deathwatch 6

Bob Herbert at NYT.

The McCain people have shown themselves predictably unpredictable. Pushing hard from all sides to remove Sarah Palin under normal circumstances would be a superb attack on McCain. The problem is, he might do it. I understand all the arguments for why he wouldn’t do that.

But I only want to hear that from people who successfully predicted he would pick her in the first place, and/or that predicted that he would “suspend” his campaign to try and wriggle out of a debate and then go to the debate anyway.

There are two basic scenarios, basically flip-sides of each other, that would make this occur. One: the upside becomes greater than the downside politically. Two: McCain starts falling behind significantly and calls an audible just to shake things up, again.

I don’t see anyway for it to work at all if it’s not done in time for the debate next week. That means that it has to be soon. 

But we’re not quite there yet. She needs one or two more major gaffes, or a scandal. Say, Trig is really Bristol’s after all, or the affair rumors get proved. Barring that, I don’t see her leaving. But, again, I didn’t predict many of McCain’s stunts, and these “scandals” could be fabricated to get her out.

It would also let McCain pick Liebermann, who he wanted in the first place. He would do this, I think, because the Rove-base based strategy isn’t working for him. This is not a base election—it’s a swing voter election, and Liebermann would fix that deficiency, even if he is just as unpopular among Dems as Palin.

Oh, and Liebermann would have a chance in a debate against Biden.

Just because he might do it doesn’t mean I think it will work. It probably won’t.