Gallup: Obama 48, McCain 42

What that means EV wise?

Well, for one thing, it could mean Texas goes to Obama based on recent polls, and would likely mean Florida goes. Based on 2004 differentials (offset by national) results, it would make Florida a dead heat, and would push Iowa, Ohio, and New Mexico into the Obama side.

It’s hard to translate the 6% national into a EV result, but it would probably be a sizable EV margin.