Iowa Prediction

It’s warmed up in Iowa, so the high turnout models might be correct. If so, that means Obama and Huckabee win. Edwards will have to finish second to stay in the race, I think.

However, the dynamic of the big Feb. 5 primary day changes this year and makes the first two states matter less to those with big money, like Hillary and Romney.

UPDATE: Ultra-high turnout models appear to favor Hillary, whose ground game is amazing:

She said that there are 4,900 drivers (John Kerry, she said, had had somewhere between 200 and 500 drivers in 2004) and another 5,000 people willing to offer rides. There are more than 600 shuttles. And each Clinton field office has salt to melt the ice.

The Clinton campaign is opening day care centers across the state, including three in Des Moines, and has enlisted a legion of teenage girls to render their tyke-watching services.

Hillary isn’t showing me that she’s my ideological soul-mate, but she’s showing me that she’s got her shit together to win.