George Bush and John Kerry were more or less neck and neck heading towards the final days of the 2004 election. Indeed, events could even be seen breaking Kerry’s way. The Bush junta’s incompetence was at the heart of the major stories of the final days: a shortage of flu vaccines for seniors and the looting of unguarded explosive and munition dumps by the insurgents in Iraq.
Then Osama appeared with some inchoate threat yammerings in another of his Troma-esque videos. Generalissimo Bush gained one percentage point a day in the overnight tracking polls and won nationally — given a few helpful shenanigans — by 2 percentage points and change. The Bin Laden video was the equivalent of an empty net goal with one minute to go. It made it next to impossible for the Kerry team to scrap for a lucky bounce to produce the tying goal to force a 2000 style OT — which Bush won with his infamous “chad in the crease” goal.
[Digression: 2004 Presidential Election Box Score. First Period: 9:33: Bush 1 (Rove, Compliant Media) – Labling Kerry Flip Flopper. Second Period: 7:06: Bush 2 (SBVFT, Rove) “Swift Boating.” Third Period: 2:22: Kerry 1 (PP) (Clintonistas, Edwards) – Debate Victory. 19:00: Bush 3 (ENG) (Bin Laden, Compliant Media) – Bin Laden Video.]
It is my intuition that Osama knew exactly what he was doing. Bush has been very good for Bin Laden. He has only pursued him half-heartedly — indeed I beleive that he aggressive-passively let him escape from Tora Bora in 2001 to maintain the fear factor necessary for Iraq II — while handing him a recruiting gold mine with the quagmire in Iraq. Bin Laden’s 04 last second youtubery rhymed with the reptillian Bush campaign theme of keeping people safe from amorphous danger. It reminded people that the Big Horrible was out there. The last impression made on the undecideds was on the neonate level and not the contemplative level. That was Bin Laden’s goal.
Would another Bin Laden clip have the same effect this time? I don’t think so. It will reinforce the fervor of committed Republicans, but it would remind everyone else that Bin Laden is still at large and that the chaos in Iraq has not helped that situation at all. Katrina has forever destroyed the Bush demi-god vision and snapped the compliant media out of its pathetic duldroms.
My Final 2006 Mid-Term Predictions
House: Democrats pick up 25 seats.
Easy Dem pick ups in Rhode Island, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
I trust that Schweitzer has enough of an organization to close for Tester in Montana. (53-47)
Democrats will come home for Menendez in New Jersey for a slim win (Although Corzine really should have picked Codey to avoid this one even being close. Codey could have been a great Senator). (52-48)
The momentum is all Webb’s way in Virginia against the racist anti-semite Conservatron Hymie Macaca “James” Allenstein. Surprisingly large win. (53-46)
The national Democratic tide lifts McCaskill in Missouri. Barely. This one may come down to a few thousand votes and legal challenges. (50.2-49.8)
Conservatron stealth racism carries the day for the Haters in Tennessee. By less than 5 percent though. (51 – 47)
Loserman holds on in Connecticutt, but it will be closer than people expect. Some Republicans will turn towards whoever the Republican is at the end and lower the Bush Patsy Loserman’s total (46 – 43 – 11).
That leaves us with (48+1(Sanders)+1(Loserman) vs. 50 Conservatrons in the Senate. The Republicans will be able to organize the Senate with a Cheney tie-breaker vote. This could be a blessing in disguise for Democrats as it will keep Cockroach front and center. He will be a brilliant foil and serve as an antidote to Conservatrons trying to blame everything on Pelosi et al. The Chamber itself will also be much improved. Gone will be nimrods Burns, Talent, Allenstein and Dewine. Gone will be theofascist lunatic Sanitorium. Webb, Casey, and Tester will be archetypes of the adjustable national mode for Democrats: United on fiscal and economic policies like minimum wage levels, health care, balanced budget, a fair tax code and general administrative/policy acumen (no Brownies); adjustable to their locales on social issues like abortion and guns etc. Having an unabashed Progressive populist like Sanders with a bit more of a bully pulpit will give air to issues that would never have gotten traction before.