Turn up heat on Iraq? Oil Peak; etc.

Kos says it’s time for the Dems to stand up against Bush on Iraq for real now. The establishment Dems are slow to jump on to that tac, even with Hagel doing so. Who’s right?

I think Hagel’s positioning himself for the 08 general even before he’s won the primary. But Democrats, especially older Democrats, have to remember how being anti-Vietnam has undermined their position as the war party for decades (wrongly, but in reality).

The solution? My first brainstorm if I had the ear of an 08 Dem candiate: a staged pullout of Iraq, with completion in a year, and, significantly, a portion of those troops redeployed to Afghanistan, Sudan, and South Korea.

As the NYT printed this weekend, there are a lot of people skeptical that Saudi Arabia can produce more than 15mb/day of oil. Whatever their theoretical peak may be, I doubt they will achieve 90% of it. Eventually, political unrest will spill into the Kingdom–moreso than it has. And if history is any guide, oil shocks are followed by demand shocks to producing nations as consumer nations use less. The next time that occurs, there could be serious unrest there.

There are a couple of possibilities. One, another 100 years of oil will turn up. Two, a war, precipitated by oil supply competition, will ruin the economy of a major consumer (and perhaps raise the demand for SPF 1,000,000 sunblock there) so the others can continue; or, three, we get over oil.

Since we have to do three anyway, why not start now when we have some control over it? That fickle whore, capital, currently the courtisan of the petrocracy, will turn it into a cuckold quick if money can be made in an alternative fuel. Are you listening fuel cell people?

Powell ’08? Has Colin Powell’s chief of staff’s comment that his bizarro-adlai moment at the UN was the low point of his career triangulation for 08?

Trade of the week: I still say go short on Clinton Dem nominee ’08. Whether she wins or not, she’s massively overvalued at 41. Sell short above 33, cover below 20. I also say go long on Wesley Clark. I got in at 0.5, he’s now around 5. He’s won the dKos straw poll several times now. Buy below 10, sell over 15. Go all in if Hillary is out.

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